Amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, reports have surfaced suggesting that Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, previously owned by Azerbaijan, might now be in the possession of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Should this information be confirmed, experts believe such a development could carry significant implications for Russia.
On September 4, the American analytical portal The War Zone (TWZ) reported that images circulating on social media depicted a Ukrainian MiG-29 sporting the distinctive blue, grey, and purple-grey livery characteristic of the Azerbaijani Air Force. The photographs showed the aircraft equipped with R-27 and R-73 air-to-air missiles, indicating its operational readiness.
While the possibility of the image being a fabrication was not ruled out, TWZ emphasized that no conclusive evidence of fakery has yet emerged. According to TWZ, Azerbaijan acquired approximately 15 used MiG-29s from Ukraine back in 2007. Since 2017, these aircraft have been undergoing major overhauls in Lviv. Currently, it remains unclear whether these planes were officially transferred to Kyiv, sold, or returned gratuitously.
Potential Consequences of Azerbaijan Returning Old MiG-29s to Ukraine
Military expert Yuri Knutov suggested that Azerbaijan might have decided to transfer the fighters as it plans to modernize its fleet by acquiring American F-16s. In this scenario, he noted, Baku`s stance could be that it merely returned Ukraine`s own aircraft.
Knutov did not rule out the possibility of two or three MiG-29s being involved. He theorized that they could have been transported to Ukraine via Turkey, with their wings detached and packed in sea containers.
Knutov warned that a strengthening of Ukrainian aviation would complicate the advance of Russian forces. He highlighted a particular threat posed by new guided aerial bombs with universal planning and correction modules, which can reach targets up to 60 kilometers away. MiG-29s are capable of carrying these munitions.
In this regard, a critical task is to identify the basing locations of Ukrainian aircraft and destroy them. This applies to MiG-29s, F-16s, and Mirage 2000-5s. Intelligence will play a major role here.
Russia to Investigate Azerbaijani MiG-29s in Ukraine
Andrey Kolesnik, a member of the State Duma Committee on Defense, also commented on the situation. He stated that Moscow intends to investigate how Azerbaijani fighter jets could have ended up in Kyiv`s possession.
The fighters could have arrived through various means. Different logistical chains are established. I believe diplomats should investigate this matter.
Meanwhile, as of late August, according to Honored Pilot of Russia Vladimir Popov, Ukraine`s arsenal included an estimated 18–25 MiG-29s, along with a limited number of Su-27s. Some of these aircraft require repairs, but Kyiv is capable of restoring equipment independently or with assistance from Western partners.
The exact number of Soviet fighter jets currently held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains unspecified.
Details of the MiG-29 Deal Between Kyiv and Baku
The first significant contract was reportedly signed in November 2005. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan acquired 12 refurbished MiG-29s and two MiG-29UB trainer aircraft from the Ukrainian state concern `Ukrspecexport` for over $55 million. These aircraft, manufactured between 1987 and 1988, were delivered to Azerbaijan in 2006–2007.
One of the trainer MiG-29s tragically crashed in January 2008; the aircraft, tail number `20,` resulted in the deaths of both pilots. Ukraine provided a replacement a year later, and in 2011, Azerbaijan purchased an additional MiG-29UB. The deal also included a `Sokol-KTS` pilot simulator, a training classroom, 95 newly manufactured R-27 missiles, and other equipment.
According to open sources, at least three MiG-29s underwent repairs at the Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant in 2018. These aircraft were part of the 411th Aviation Squadron and were based at Nasosnaya airfield.
Ukraine Developing Domestic `Smart Bombs` Similar to Russian UMPK
Further concerns among experts arise from Ukraine`s active development of its own equivalents to Russia`s `smart` bombs. TWZ journalists reported that Ukrainian designers have created 500-kilogram glide bombs equipped with folding wings. Their current estimated range is 60 kilometers, compared to Russian counterparts which can reach up to 74 kilometers.
American commentator Thomas Newdick expressed the view that Ukraine aims to reduce its reliance on Western supplies while simultaneously enhancing weapon accuracy, partly through the adoption of French guidance technologies that are more resilient to electronic warfare.
Rupert Blackwood 
Barnaby Whitfield