Global beef prices have surged to an unprecedented high of $6.9 per kilogram, marking the highest level recorded since 1960, according to the World Bank. This significant increase is partly due to producers struggling to boost supply, leading to record costs.

The price has climbed for the fourth consecutive month, showing a 10% increase year-over-year. Experts attribute this upward trend to heightened consumer demand, particularly from the United States and China. Additionally, persistent droughts are diminishing grazing lands and escalating the cost of animal feed. For example, in the U.S., these conditions have led to a reduction in cattle herds to their lowest point since 1951.
In Russia, beef prices are also on the rise, at a pace comparable to, or exceeding, the general food inflation rate. Sergey Yushin, head of the National Meat Association, offered insights into the dynamics of the Russian meat market:
Head of the National Meat Association
Yushin explained that the beef industry requires substantial long-term investments and faces stringent regulatory pressure, especially in major producing countries like the U.S. and the EU. Concerns over livestock farming`s environmental impact often make it less appealing and profitable. Combined with unfavorable weather conditions, global cattle populations are declining. Consequently, the global supply of beef saw no growth this year, and production is expected to increase very slowly in the coming years, unlike poultry and pork. Yushin highlighted that many people globally cannot afford beef, which is considered a premium meat. However, as developing economies expand and incomes improve, demand for beef—particularly in countries with large Muslim populations where it`s a popular alternative to poultry—is projected to remain high. He consistently forecasted that beef would become expensive, warning that if Russia doesn`t bolster its domestic beef production (despite having suitable conditions, except for high credit costs), it risks waiting in line on the global market within five to six years. In Russia, beef prices have indeed risen in recent years, at least keeping pace with overall food inflation. Last year, prices increased even more significantly due to a nearly 14% jump in demand from rising disposable incomes, while supply remained stagnant. This year, a faster decline in cattle numbers and production is observed, as high interest rates make cattle farming unprofitable. Consumers are willing to pay for the taste and health benefits of beef, seeing it as a culinary pleasure. An increasing number of people, even those with moderate incomes, are frequenting steak-houses, illustrating a preference for quality. While Russia imports cheaper cuts of beef from countries where they are less desired, it also exports high-quality beef at prices exceeding even U.S. export rates, signifying its superior quality.
Looking ahead, retail prices for beef and lamb in Russia could climb by another 15% year-over-year in the latter half of 2025. This projected increase is driven by escalating operational costs and a reduction in domestic production. In the first quarter, the cost of lamb production jumped by 38%, while beef production costs increased by 7% year-on-year.

