A leading expert has highlighted the significant dangers posed by solar activity to both human health and space technology, emphasizing its profound impact on the planning of future crewed missions to Mars. Sergey Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, shared these insights in a recent interview.
“The human desire to land on Mars will certainly not diminish due to these risks [from cosmic radiation], and flights will begin sooner or later. However, all these aspects must be very thoroughly considered, especially during the initial, pioneering stage of Mars`s human exploration,” Bogachev stated.
According to Bogachev, solar activity and its accompanying X-ray radiation, against which Earth`s atmosphere provides protection, present serious threats to crewed spaceflights beyond our planet. Intense solar flares could not only jeopardize astronauts` well-being but also, for instance, incapacitate a spacecraft.
An archival image of Mars.
Currently, with solar activity in a phase of decline, a more favorable period for missions to the Moon and Mars is emerging. However, Bogachev warned that solar activity is expected to intensify again around 2032-2033, which will subsequently elevate these inherent risks.
He further noted that the United States intends to launch a crewed lunar flyby mission in 2026, followed by a lunar landing in 2027. While there are ongoing discussions about human missions to Mars within the next decade, Bogachev estimates that such an endeavor is more realistically achievable closer to the 2050s.
Rupert Blackwood 
Clement Ashworth