Record-high prices for pork ham are forcing meat processors to revise their recipes and contemplate significant price increases. Simultaneously, demand for these sausage products is already showing a decline, according to NTech data. Is this surge in pork prices real, and what will be the impact on the taste and cost of sausages?
Since August 2024, the price of pork ham, a crucial ingredient for sausage production, has surged by nearly a third in Russia, reaching 325 rubles per kilogram. This information comes from NTech, an analytical company, whose statistics were reviewed by Izvestia newspaper. To maintain profitability, manufacturers are planning to revise their recipes by increasing the proportion of cheaper mechanically deboned meat and substituting pork with chicken where permissible. Furthermore, the price hike extends beyond just pork ham.
According to industry unions, this situation is linked to internal market restructuring and an increase in slaughtering and butchering capacities. The challenging conditions in border regions, where some producers faced losses, also played a role. Yulia Panferova, Chairwoman of the National Union of Meat Processors, elaborates:
“Pork half-carcasses have increased in price by 17%, ham by 26%, sausage raw materials—side and back fat—by 44% and 34% respectively, semi-fat trimmings by 37%, and lean trimmings by 27%. Lean trimmings can sometimes be replaced with chicken fillet. Economy-segment sausages are unlikely to see significant price increases, as the cost of cheap chicken raw material used in them is decreasing. However, dry-cured sausages and delicacies, which contain a higher proportion of meat, are becoming more expensive. I suspect that retail chains won`t implement such a large percentage increase all at once; it will likely be spread out over a year.”
“How significant will the recipe changes in sausage products be?”
“All this is strictly regulated, with serious inspections in the industry, and many meat processing plants are under heightened control. Believe me, if lean trimmings are replaced with chicken fillet, the average consumer won`t notice the difference, as it has similar protein content. Typically, any attempt to reduce recipe costs leads to a decrease in sales volumes. Companies operating in the mid- and high-price segments do not resort to such measures; they raise prices and introduce new products instead.”
Experts note that this increase in costs is occurring against a backdrop of declining consumer demand. Data from analytical firms indicate a fall in sales across almost all types of sausage products. Only packaged deli meats and smoked meats are currently showing growth, suggesting a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality and more expensive goods.
Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the total volume of pork production in the country remains stable and comparable to last year`s figures, at 3.3 million tons. Musheg Mamikonyan, a board member of the National Union of Pig Breeders of Russia and former board member of Cherkizovsky Agro-Industrial Complex, concurs. In his opinion, the price increase was due to seasonal demand, and everything will stabilize soon:
“Overall, if we look at the annual trend, poultry and pork inflation does not keep pace with general inflation and is generally lower than food inflation. The only exception this year is that Russia continued to dynamically increase its export supplies, but the total export volume cannot yet significantly impact the domestic market situation.”
“Has the demand for sausages decreased?”
“Over the past ten years, demand for sausage products has not decreased; in fact, it has even increased over the last two to three years. Statistics confirm that we continue to consume 2.4-2.5 tons of sausage products, including canned goods, just as before. Meanwhile, semi-finished products—which require minimal preparation before serving—are showing dynamic growth. The notion of declining sausage consumption is a myth. Over the past three to five years, we have reached a level where consumption adequately reflects the stability of this market, high competition, and affordable prices.”
If the forecast for rapid price stabilization proves true, manufacturers will have an opportunity to avoid drastic measures. This would allow the `raw material producer — processor — retail` chain to find a new balance without shocking price increases or recipe changes. However, this process has already begun.
Rupert Blackwood 
Clement Ashworth