Sergey Bogachev, head of the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has announced an upcoming four-year period of declining solar activity following its recent peak. Despite this general downward trend, he warns that Earth could still experience unexpected and exceptionally powerful solar flares capable of inducing strong magnetic storms.
Bogachev elaborated that while the solar cycle will gradually wane over the next four years, historical data offers a crucial insight: the most significant events, including record-breaking flares, frequently occur not at the very peak of solar activity but rather two to three years afterward. To illustrate, he cited the most powerful flare of the 21st century (an X40 class event) in 2003, which took place two years after the cycle`s maximum in 2001. Similarly, a strong flare in 2017 occurred three years after its respective peak.
The scientist drew a parallel between the Sun`s behavior and Earth`s climate: just as an unexpected snowstorm might hit in spring or a heatwave occur during autumn, powerful solar events can manifest outside the traditionally expected peak activity phase. This emphasizes the unpredictable nature of extreme solar phenomena.
Bogachev also specified that periods of true “calm” on the Sun are typically brief, lasting only two to three years. In the previous solar cycle, these quiet phases were observed from 2018 to 2020. For the current cycle, similar tranquility is anticipated around 2029-2030, potentially extending into 2031.
Rupert Blackwood 
Clement Ashworth