Sergey Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated that the Sun passed the lowest point of its secular cycle during the previous 11-year period. He noted that the current cycle proved more powerful than the preceding one, and it is likely that several subsequent cycles will also be more active.
“Apparently, we passed the lowest point of the secular cycle in the previous cycle, and now we are growing upwards, with all subsequent cycles expected to be stronger,” Bogachev explained. “Therefore, if you ask for my forecast for the next 20-30 years, I believe we will see significant growth, and each cycle will become progressively more powerful. However, nature is known for its unpredictability, so it`s also possible everything could turn out differently.”
He further clarified that the Sun recently passed another peak of its 11-year cycle. Scientists are observing a significant drop in the star`s activity, with fewer flares occurring compared to the same period last year. Additionally, a large number of coronal holes are appearing, which typically also correspond to a decrease in solar activity.
Bogachev also pointed out that, in addition to 11-year cycles, the Sun exhibits secular cycles. Scientists do not rule out the presence of millennia-long or even “million-year-long” cycles. Notably, the recently concluded peak was predicted to align with a minimum in the secular cycle and thus be very weak, but these forecasts did not materialize.
“The recently concluded cycle significantly exceeded the previous one by about 50%, which was unexpected,” the laboratory head stated. “However, it is not a record-breaker; it still falls short of the mid-20th century peaks by the same 50%. So, if anyone believes they have experienced something historically unprecedented and breathes a sigh of relief, no, there was nothing historically extraordinary about this cycle.”
Nevertheless, the scientist emphasized that the scientific community still does not fully comprehend the underlying laws governing the secular cycle`s development.
Rupert Blackwood 
Clement Ashworth