Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced an extension of the gasoline export ban until early 2026. Analysts note that this year`s fuel shortage is due to the same reasons as previous years, and attacks on Russian refineries are not the primary cause.
Amid ongoing reports from various regions about fuel supply disruptions, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak declared that the gasoline export ban would remain in effect until January 2026. A similar restriction applies to companies that trade diesel but do not produce it. The pressing question is: when will the situation in the domestic fuel market stabilize?
In short, experts suggest “soon.” However, concerns remain that the problem is likely to recur in a year`s time. The core reasons for the fuel crisis observed in late summer and early autumn are consistently the same: high seasonal demand coinciding with scheduled refinery maintenance. This year, unscheduled repairs caused by drone attacks on Russia`s fuel infrastructure further exacerbated the situation.
Specialists highlight that oil companies are investing in security measures, including protective netting and electronic warfare systems. Nevertheless, offensive technologies are also continually advancing. The number of drones is increasing, attacks are more frequent, and targets are systematically struck. A refinery sustains damage, undergoes repairs, resumes operations—only to face another attack. Estimates indicate that strikes on Russian refineries have disrupted up to 17% of the country`s oil refining capacity. However, Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the Financial University, believes that seasonal factors and the rise in attacks only aggravated a more fundamental issue:
Leading expert at the Financial University and National Energy Security Fund
“The primary factor is the reduction in compensatory payments to oil companies under the damper mechanism. For instance, why did previous record high gasoline prices occur in 2023, not 2024? Because back then, anticipating cuts to damper payments, companies began to raise prices on the exchange, attempting to make up for lost revenue. This resulted in a record price surge. This year, the situation repeated itself: damper payments decreased by approximately 45-47% due to falling global prices and a strengthening ruble. The fundamental cause of the crisis is precisely the reduction in damper payments.”
In other words, the crisis is fundamentally economic. Yet, the expert acknowledges that without addressing security concerns, Russia could eventually face a real threat of physical gasoline shortages. How to resolve these security issues remains unclear.
Regarding the current situation, the prevailing sentiment is to simply wait for the natural decline in demand. According to Konstantin Simonov, General Director of the National Energy Security Fund, the extension of the export ban is more an exercise in media relations:
General Director of the National Energy Security Fund, Professor at the Financial University
“The regulators’ objective is simple: to demonstrate they’ve conceived some brilliant idea that will supposedly resolve the crisis. In reality, these measures will change nothing significant. The main goal is to hold out until the natural seasonal decline in demand, while covering the situation with pronouncements about contrived solutions that don`t actually alter anything.”
The good news is that the wait shouldn`t be too long. At least, for this year…
Rupert Blackwood 
Clement Ashworth